AGP Executive Report

Green Investment: BlackRock’s HPS has committed up to S$555 million to TBS Energi Utama’s Asian waste-management platform, giving Indonesia’s waste sector a major financing boost. Regional Ties: Indonesia and Singapore agreed to pursue companies linked to forest fires, while haze and gas-export disputes continue to test business relations. Trade and Finance: Indonesia is targeting US$33 billion in US trade deals, and local-currency transactions are projected to reach US$55 billion this year. Jobs and Demand: Unemployment fell to 4.65%, its lowest since 1994, while Jakarta says Ye’s concert generated Rp600 billion in economic activity.

Regional Ties: Indonesia and Singapore agreed to form a task force to pursue companies linked to forest fires, as Jakarta defended cutting gas exports to meet domestic demand. The move puts energy security and regional business ties in focus. Energy Investment: Inpex completed engineering design early for the US$22 billion Abadi Masela LNG project, targeting a final investment decision by early 2027. Barito Renewables also lifted geothermal capacity to 935.55 MW after a Darajat plant upgrade. Markets: Indonesia is tightening stock-market oversight after an MSCI warning, with new measures aimed at improving transparency and curbing manipulation. Growth: Indonesia’s economy grew 5.45% and investment reached a record US$216 billion, while unemployment fell to its lowest rate since 1994. SME Exports: Trade agreements and online marketplaces are opening export routes for small businesses, but logistics costs, export rules and product competitiveness remain hurdles.

Energy Security: Indonesia has begun cutting pipeline gas exports to Singapore by about 9%, citing domestic needs. Singapore says the reduction is under 2% of its daily demand, but the move has sharpened questions over contracts and regional energy reliability. Jakarta also plans domestic crude-oil storage and new procurement rules to bring imports directly into the country. Investment Push: State investment agency Danantara is targeting US$20 billion to US$30 billion in industrial investment over two to three years, with projects spanning energy, advanced materials and semiconductors. Markets: Regulators are tightening oversight of stock-price manipulation after market turmoil and a possible MSCI downgrade. The share-buyback exemption for listed firms has been extended to June 2027. Creative Economy: Indonesia and India have launched a creative-tech corridor in East Java, combining Indonesian intellectual property with Indian production capabilities and AI tools to reach international markets.

Energy Security: Indonesia has overhauled oil, fuel and LPG procurement, shifting from Pertamina-led tenders to direct government and producer deals. The move comes as Jakarta cuts pipeline gas exports to Singapore by about 9%, citing domestic needs and defending its contracts amid Singapore’s calls to honour them. Markets: OJK extended rules allowing listed firms to buy back shares without shareholder approval through June 2027, while the IDX plans targeted public investigations into suspected price manipulation. Growth and Investment: Indonesia’s economy grew 5.45% and drew a record US$216 billion in investment over Prabowo’s first two years. New financing for a West Java data centre and North Sumatra heart hospital adds to infrastructure investment, as the government seeks to spread data-centre capacity beyond Java. Prices and Climate: September inflation held at 3.28%, within target, but drought-driven chili shortages pushed monthly prices higher. Forecasters warn El Niño could threaten Indonesian rice and palm-oil output and raise power risks.

Energy and Trade: Indonesia began cutting pipeline gas exports to Singapore to prioritise domestic power supplies, redirecting 17 billion Btu a day. The cut is less than 2% of Singapore’s daily demand, but has raised concerns over contracts and regional energy security. Investment and Markets: Indonesia’s market faces renewed scrutiny over MSCI downgrade risks, while officials pledge reforms to restore investor confidence. The country has recorded 5.45% economic growth and $216 billion in investment during Prabowo’s first two years. Corporate Deals: Affirma Capital is exploring a sale of its stake in charter operator Travira Air; the company serves oil, gas and mining clients, and its 2025 sales revenue reportedly rose 67.9%. Industry: GIFA and METEC Indonesia drew 260 exhibitors and more than 6,000 visitors, with organisers planning a 2028 return. Tourism and Haze: Indonesian fires are disrupting regional travel, with flight cancellations and delays and weaker bookings adding economic costs.

Energy & Trade: Indonesia has cut pipeline gas exports to Singapore to prioritize domestic industrial feedstock. Singapore says the reduction is under 2% of its daily demand, but importers may seek to protect their contractual rights. Household Support: The government is distributing rice to 33.2 million low-income households for October–December, with each eligible family receiving 30 kilograms. Industry: Indonesia and Russia are exploring pharmaceutical technology transfers and local manufacturing to reduce medicine imports, including insulin and other diabetes treatments. Capital Markets: After MSCI downgrade concerns rattled stocks, Indonesia has pledged reforms to rebuild investor confidence. Jakarta Economy: The governor says concerts and sporting events are drawing visitors and spending, including a festival that generated more than Rp250 billion in transactions.

Energy and Trade: Indonesia cut pipeline gas exports to Singapore by about 9%, redirecting supply to domestic power needs. Singapore says the shortfall is under 2% of its daily demand and it has alternatives. Capital Markets: MSCI’s downgrade warning has put pressure on Indonesia to improve ownership disclosure, free-float data and market oversight; officials say the country’s fundamentals remain sound. Investment and Growth: Indonesia reported $216 billion in investment during Prabowo’s first two years, while the economy grew 5.45%, but investors are watching for stronger policy certainty. Haze and Business: Indonesia has named 11 companies as suspects in forest-fire cases and threatened licence revocations, as Singapore investigates firms linked to the cross-border smoke. Food Security: A rice assistance programme will reach 33.2 million people, with about one million tonnes allocated for distribution through December.

Energy and Trade: Indonesia cut gas exports to Singapore by 31 million cubic feet a day, prioritizing domestic supply and industrial feedstock. Singapore says the reduction is less than 2% of its daily demand; new output from the Maha field is expected to boost domestic supply from November. Investment Climate: Indonesia reported US$216 billion in investment during Prabowo’s first two years, even as an MSCI downgrade warning unsettled markets. Officials say the warning does not reflect the country’s economic fundamentals. Jobs and SMEs: The government is promoting animation as a job-creating digital industry and sees export potential for eco-friendly MSME products, if makers strengthen quality and design. Business Resilience: Kadin says nearly 58% of surveyed businesses faced disruption from disasters, and is urging stronger early-warning systems and policy certainty to protect investment and logistics.

Energy Policy: Indonesia is weighing gas-export curbs to prioritize domestic industry. Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia says he is unfazed by possible retaliation, but analysts warn that replacing export earnings with domestic sales may carry economic costs. Haze and Business: Jakarta says it will prosecute people and companies responsible for forest fires, while Singapore has widened its probe and issued notices to firms over links to Indonesian land. The scrutiny raises legal and reputational risks for businesses. Growth and Investment: The economy grew 5.45%, and Indonesia reported $216 billion in investment during Prabowo’s first two years in office. Yet job seekers describe a difficult market, underscoring uneven gains. Markets: MSCI downgrade concerns rattled shares and put market transparency in focus. Authorities are promising reforms, including excluding tightly held stocks from key indices. Food Security: Rice stocks reached a record 4.56 million tonnes, strengthening supplies as an intensifying El Niño threatens harvests across the region.

Haze and Business: Indonesia is threatening to revoke licences and prosecute firms linked to forest fires, as Singapore seeks information from 10 companies with Indonesian land interests. The worsening haze is raising pressure for corporate accountability. Markets: Bank Indonesia says the rupiah remains manageable after MSCI’s downgrade warning shook stocks. Authorities are pledging reforms, including excluding highly concentrated shares from a key index from Nov. 2. Energy: The government is weighing gas export curbs to supply domestic petrochemical producers, while energy-sector revenue rose despite lower coal export volumes. Trade and Governance: Indonesia’s Trade Expo reported potential transactions of US$22.94 billion. The government is also pursuing foreign-bribery legislation as part of its OECD membership drive.

Market Confidence: Indonesia is racing to calm investors after MSCI’s downgrade warning triggered a steep sell-off. Authorities are tightening enforcement, removing highly concentrated stocks from a key index from Nov. 2, while state fund Danantara says it has bought shares. Growth Outlook: Fitch expects growth near 4.9% in 2027 and 2028, well below President Prabowo’s 8% goal, unless reforms and job creation lift productivity. Energy Security: Jakarta is weighing a halt to gas export contract renewals to prioritise domestic supply, a move that could affect buyers including Japan, China and Singapore. Digital Investment: Data-center operators warn that confining new facilities to industrial estates could raise costs and constrain expansion as AI-driven demand grows. Trade and Finance: Indonesia is targeting approval of CPTPP accession in November and expects its Canada trade deal to boost exports from December. Sompo Indonesia has also launched a standalone syariah insurer as the country’s Islamic insurance market expands.

Market Confidence: Prabowo accused MSCI of trying to intimidate Indonesia after its warning of a possible downgrade rattled stocks. Authorities have pledged capital-market reforms as investors watch for signs of stronger transparency and enforcement. Fire Accountability: Police named 11 corporations, including three foreign-invested firms, as suspects in forest-fire cases. The government has suspended permits for 32 companies, and Prabowo says repeat offenders could lose their licences. Inclusive Finance: The government disbursed Rp53.15 trillion in productive loans to 2.1 million small businesses, farmers and fishers, with a target of Rp400 trillion in coming years. Investment and Jobs: Danantara is prioritising critical minerals, downstreaming and digital infrastructure for 2027, while a new training programme aims to help 50,000 laid-off workers return to work or start businesses. Australia Partnership: Indonesia and Australia renewed their economic partnership, committing AU$420 million over a decade to support policy reforms, stability and private-sector growth.

Market Confidence: Indonesia’s stocks extended their rebound, gaining 6.5% over two sessions, as regulators stepped up reforms after MSCI warned it may reclassify the market as standalone. The review is ongoing, with a final decision due in June 2027. Enforcement: OJK imposed record fines of Rp2.1 trillion (US$116.7 million) for trading violations involving three listed companies, as it seeks to improve transparency and investor trust. Monetary Policy: Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate at 5.75% but raised the deposit facility rate to 5%, while monitoring capital outflows and pressure on the rupiah. Investment: Danantara and the state-owned enterprise agency plan to use public assets to develop 12 smart cities, with affordable housing, schools and hospitals among the priorities.

Markets & Monetary Policy: Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate at 5.75% but raised the deposit facility rate to 5%, while monitoring capital outflows after MSCI’s warning over Indonesia’s market status. The exchange is overhauling its index rules to address concerns and limit fallout. Investment: Foreign investment outpaced domestic investment in annual growth, while TBS Energi Utama secured a potential S$555 million investment from HPS to expand its waste-management business in Asia, pending shareholder approval. Business Risks: Forest and land fires are drawing tougher corporate scrutiny: the government sanctioned 32 companies across 1.93 million hectares of concessions, and residents in West Kalimantan are suing the state over its handling of the health and economic crisis.

Markets: Indonesian shares rebounded as authorities moved to calm investors after a record selloff sparked by MSCI’s warning over market access and transparency. OJK has pledged tougher reforms, while the exchange plans to remove highly concentrated stocks from key indexes. Investment and Energy: Investment reached Rp1,539.2 trillion through September, while the government is reviving its oil and gas forum after an eight-year gap to attract upstream capital and support a 2026 production target of 610,000 barrels a day. Indonesia’s oil import bill has jumped 40%, adding pressure as fuel subsidies shield households. Business Risks: Forest fires and cross-border haze are widening legal and reputational risks for plantation companies, with Singapore expanding scrutiny of Indonesian firms and authorities investigating suspected fire links. Household Economy: Despite reported economic gains over Prabowo’s first two years, coverage points to a gap between headline resilience and the limited growth benefits felt by many households.

Market Turmoil: Indonesian stocks rebounded 5.65% on Tuesday after a record selloff sparked by MSCI’s warning that the market could lose emerging-market status. OJK says reforms are under way, including tougher ownership disclosures and a gradual increase in minimum free float to 15%. Investment and Energy: Investment reached Rp1,539.2 trillion through September, while Indonesia plans to revive its oil and gas forum after an eight-year pause as it works to maintain 2026 oil output at 610,000 barrels a day. Household Costs: The oil import bill has jumped 40%, with fuel subsidies shielding consumers from higher costs even as pressure on public finances grows.